Disclaimer! This page is a round up of rumors on the internet from various sites that specialize in this type of information. I have linked the sources at the bottom. I have relationships with some of these companies, but don’t have any inside information on new product announcements. Even if I did, that usually means I’m under a non-disclosure agreement so I won’t say anything. That being said, this is just a curated collection of what is floating around the web. Some of these may be accurate, some probably pure speculation. But it is interesting as our industry is changing faster than ever and its a fascinating time in the photography world for sure! Now on to the speculation…
Updated September 23, 2018
A major press conference has been announced for Photokina. Press conference will start at 12:30 Berlin time on September 25th.
Rumors say this will be a high-end full-frame mirrorless designed to compete with the Sony A9 and the Nikon D850. It will possibly use the Leica S mount found on the SL mirrorless camera – in partnership with Leica and Sigma.
Pentax / Ricoh
Word is that at Photokina, Pentax/Ricoh will announce “something”. Sounds really exciting.
The addition of a marketing department perhaps?
Hasselblad, like most other medium format cameras, uses a Sony 50 megapixel sensor. As Sony is rumored to be developing a 100 MP sensor we can assume that at some point we’ll have:
• 100 Megapixel Mirrorless – Probably a X2D or something similar
Hasselblad released a roadmap of coming lenses – we can expect to see over the next year:
• 65mm f/2.8
• 80mm f/tbd
• 35-75mm f/3.5-4.5
• 135mm f/2.8
• New “High End” Camera in January 2019
• New M43 Sensor
• With “advanced” video features
• Pen F II in 2019
• Possible Pro Zoom (150-400mm) in development
• M.Zuiko PRO 12mm f/1.2 in 2018
• Olympus M.Zuiko Digital ED 45mm f/1.2 PRO Lens
• Olympus M.Zuiko Digital ED 17mm f/1.2 PRO Lens
• Olympus M.Zuiko Digital ED 12-100mm f/4 IS PRO Lens
• Olympus M.Zuiko Digital ED 30mm f/3.5 Macro Lens
• Olympus M.Zuiko Digital ED 25mm f/1.2 PRO Lens
Phase One Rumors
Phase One has announced the release of the new IQ4 which features a 150 megapixel, Backside Illuminated (BSI) medium format sensor. Also new is “Capture One Inside”. This means improved preview quality, JPEG processing, IIQ style integration, improved live view, faster frame rate and new tools. There are 3 new tethering options as well as support for both XQD and SD cards (this is a much faster back to work with). Available in Standard, Trichromatic and Achromatic configurations (color and black and white). Price point starts at $47,990.
Read more on Phase One’s website.
GFX 100S Medium Format
• 100 megapixel BSI Sony sensor
• Development announcement on September 25th
GFX 50R Medium Format
• Priced either $3600 or $4500
• “Rangefinder styled”
• EVF only (no optical)
• Tilt screen
• Dual SD cart slots
• Button layout similar to X-E3 with joystick
• Possible 40mm pancake lens
• Announcement expected on September 25, 2018 | 7:30AM EST
New Lens Roadmap
• XF 16mm f/2.8 R WR
• XF 16-80mm f/4 R LM OIS WR
• XF 33mm f/1.0 R WR
• New Fixed-Lens, 35mm f/2, Full-Frame Mirrorless Camera
• 40mm f/2.0 Zeiss Batis for Sony E-Mount (On September 10?)
• 100mm f/1.4 Zeiss Otus for Canon/Nikon
Canon has plans to announce one full frame and 2 APS-C mirrorless cameras in 2019.
Other upcoming rumors (likely before Photokina 2018) are:
• Canon EF-M 32mm f/1.4 STM
• Canon EOS M5 Mk II
• Canon EOS 90D/80D Mk II
• Canon EOS 7D Mk III
Recently released from Canon:
• Canon Powershot SX740 HS with 4k recording and 40x zoom lens
• Canon EF 70-200mm f/4L IS II USM Lens
• Canon EF 70-200mm f/2.8L IS III USM Lens
• Canon EF 85mm f/1.4L IS USM Lens
Nikon has confirmed that there will be more models in the mirrorless Nikon Z lineup. Both higher end and entry level.
Also announced is the Nikon D3500
• Z Mount 58mm f/0.95 Noct (2019)
» Nikon Z7 45.7 Megapixel, Full Frame Mirrorless
» Nikon Z6 24.5 Megapixel, Full Frame Mirrorless
» Nikon NIKKOR Z 24-70mm f/4 S
» Nikon NIKKOR Z 35mm f/1.8 S
» Nikon NIKKOR Z 50mm f/1.8 S
Camera Industry Sales Numbers (CiPA Reports)
One thing that is very important to understand is all the activity you see from any camera manufacturer in our industry hinges on the numbers shown here. These numbers represent cameras sold over the last few years broken down by month. Why is this important? Sales trends will dictate what camera companies will produce.
The following charts are taken from the current CIPA report which includes the statistical data of products shipped by its member corporations for the last 3 years. CIPA is the Camera & Imaging Products Association and their members (listed below) include most of the major camera manufacturers. Some of the smaller, boutique medium format companies are not part of this so it doesn’t represent everyone in the business (only Japanese corporations), but there is enough data to get an idea from the big players what is happening in the industry.
What do these numbers tell us?
Well first the bad news. Digital camera sales (all of them) have on the decline. Point-and-shoot compact cameras have been hit the hardest in the 3rd graph (built-in lens type). The Interchangeable Lens chart includes both mirrorless and DSLR (reflex-type) cameras. It shows considerable progress digging out of the hole, but this graph doesn’t tell the full story as its essentially DSLR’s and mirrorless combined.
If you go further into the reports (this graph is compiled from the monthly reports) you will get detailed information by camera type which gives you the following data for 2018:
While at first glance, mirrorless seems to be only half of DSLR sales. But consider this – DSLR sales have been on the decline for the last 10 years. Mirrorless is a new category that didn’t previously exist, and it has been on the rise. Mirrorless has helped slow the decline of sales. The industry is moving away from the DSLR model. When you consider that these rising mirrorless sales are coming only from Sony, Fujifilm, Micro 4/3 and Canon’s APS-C line – you can see why Nikon is being so aggressive with new developments (all mirrorless). They badly want a piece of this market. These numbers don’t express it directly, but Nikon sales have likely been the same at best, if not moving down over the last few years. All of these companies are predicting change over the next 10 years and want to act now.
There is much theory and speculation as to why this is happening. Many blame it on the rise of cell phones and now everyone has a camera in their pocket. Perhaps only those that are serious about photography spend money on system cameras? I think that’s a fair conclusion, but I also think we’ve seen a major shift in the role photography plays in our lives. What used to be a popular hobby now serves also a utilitarian function. The smartphone simply is more productive and adequate for most people. However, the rise in popularity of mirrorless is fascinating because its a newer trend. Perhaps the rise of mirrorless is enough reason for people to purchase cameras once again.
Speculation aside – I don’t think most people realize how low these numbers are. In fact the indicate a serious problem in the industry that threatens someone going out of business. With fewer cameras being sold – can these lower sales sustain an industry? This is the troubling question. Can the low sales numbers sustain all the corporations providing the technology?